A Comparison of the Downstream Predictability Associated with ET and Baroclinic Cyclones

Individual case studies have shown that extratropical transition (ET) is associated with a decrease in the skill of subsequent downstream numerical weather prediction model forecasts. The degraded performance is often associated with the uncertainty that could originate in how the outflow from the TC impinges on the midlatitude waveguide, leading to the generation of a Rossby wave packet. Moreover, recent studies have suggested that the intensification of midlatitude cyclones can produce a similar downstream response; therefore, it is also possible that these storms could also be associated with decreased downstream predictability. The goal of this study is to evaluate whether ET and midlatitude cyclones are associated with a systematic decrease in downstream predictability.